Climate change is posing an escalating threat to Zambia’s agriculture sector and the welfare of its households, with far-reaching economic implications that demand urgent policy intervention. The nation, already battling the effects of extreme weather events, faces sustained risks to its primary source of food security and income.
Economic Impact on Farming
The disruption caused by shifts in rainfall and increased frequency of droughts and floods directly undermines Zambia’s agricultural output. As the backbone of many rural livelihoods, stress on this sector translates into broader economic instability.
“The immediate challenge lies in safeguarding crop yields, which are highly sensitive to weather volatility. This is no longer just a physical risk but a profound economic risk that dictates Zambia’s growth trajectory,” noted Hambulo Ngoma of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center.
Threat to Household Welfare
The impact ripples quickly from the farm gate to the dinner table. Reduced harvests lead to lower incomes for farming families and higher food prices for consumers, squeezing the purchasing power of the most vulnerable.
Patrick Lupiya from Egerton University emphasized the severity of the welfare shock: “For a country with high dependence on subsistence farming, a climate-induced reduction in agricultural productivity directly translates into increased household poverty and food insecurity. It systematically erodes the gains made in development.”
Imperative for Policy and Investment
Experts are calling for an economy-wide strategic response centered on climate adaptation and diversification. This includes major investments in drought-resistant crops, irrigation infrastructure, and non-farm employment opportunities.
“Policymakers must realize that adaptation is not an optional environmental cost; it is an essential investment in national economic resilience,” argued Mulako Kabisa of the University of the Witwatersrand. “We need to operationalize climate-smart agriculture at scale to manage this systemic threat.”
Just Transition and Financial Resilience
Addressing the intertwined issues of climate impact and economic stability requires looking at how financial mechanisms can support a fair transition for affected communities.
Faaiqa Hartley from the University of Cape Town pointed to the need for a protective financial layer: “The challenge for Zambia is linking climate risk management to the financial sector. Developing strong agricultural insurance schemes and ensuring climate finance reaches the smallholder farmer are non-negotiable for building long-term resilience.”
